First, congrats to Mac Jones. Only 12 other rookie quarterbacks in NFL history have guided their team to the playoffs while starting at least 10 games.
So, good job, Mac. And good luck. You’re gonna need it.
Barring several Week 18 upsets, the New England Patriots will likely be on the road on Wild Card weekend to face either the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills or the Kansas City Chiefs.
Cassel: Who is a better matchup for Patriots come playoff time?
All three would be challenging but winnable matchups for the Patriots, who have proven they can play with anyone this season. Jones also has shown a poise beyond his years, emerging as a Rookie of the Year candidate amid a strong first season.
But if you’re wondering how rookie QBs typically fare in the postseason, the answer is… not good.
Consider this: 12 rookie quarterbacks have started a postseason game from the 2011 playoffs to the present, per Stathead. Only three of those quarterbacks won, and the most recent was Los Angeles Rams rookie John Wolford, who gave way to veteran Jared Goff in the second quarter of a 2020 Wild Card matchup.
The last rookie QB to win a playoff game before Wolford? You have to go back to the 2012 Wild Card Round, when Russell Wilson threw for 187 yards and a touchdown to help the Seattle Seahawks earn a comeback victory over Washington.
Some pretty impressive QBs have failed their first playoff tests, too: Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson all lost their playoff debuts while combining for five touchdown passes and three interceptions, and even Wilson didn’t make it out of the 2012 Divisional Round after falling to the Atlanta Falcons 30-28.
Patriots fans could argue that if T.J. Yates can win a playoff game, so can Jones. Jones also benefits from a strong running game, rock-solid offensive line and talented defense, so the Patriots may not need him to be the star of the show in his first postseason.
If New England makes a deep playoff run with a rookie QB, however, it will buck an overwhelming trend.
No quarterback in NFL history has led his team to a Super Bowl appearance (much less a victory) in his first season, and only six have made it out of the divisional round. The average passer rating of those six QBs in their conference championship games: 49.3.
The takeaway: It’s very hard to win in January with a rookie quarterback. Then again, it’s traditionally pretty hard to beat Bill Belichick and the Patriots in January. We’ll find out a week and a half from now whether Jones can become an historical anamoly.